Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Resolves in 3 days · Analyzed in 57 s
Decision
BUY No
Your position pays if the answer to "Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" is No.
Research and Successful Traders agree
POLYRA gives No 88%. Information only: the recommendation stays the same; how much risk to take is your call.
88%
POLYRA
chance No wins · Polymarket 77%
Research
No · 88%
No is the answer: that is what the independent research expects.
Successful Traders
No · 8 of 8
8 of the 8 counted wallets hold positions that pay if No is the answer.
Why
Most mainstream polls (Channel 12, 13, Kan, Maariv, Walla) put Likud at 19-21 in the final week, well below 25. Polls show Likud falling or flat in the final week (Walla showed Likud down to 19), and Yashar leads in most surveys. Channel 14 (29-30 seats) and i24NEWS (26 seats) are consistently the most Likud-favourable pollsters, and a 25-29 result is near their readings.
POLYRA chance
88%
for No
Polymarket
77%
market price
Your entry
78.0¢
fills from the book
If it wins
$128
per $100 · gross, not expected profit
Successful Traders in this market
8 found · 8 counted
No · 8 wallets
entered 74.7¢ → now 78.0¢(+3.4¢)
- 0x8f3a…91af$38,938 profit in 30 daysNo · $7,978entry 74.9¢
- 0xb21c…0c3d$30,978 profit in 30 daysNo · $5,890entry 75.8¢
- 0x4d7e…7e21$212,318 profit in 30 daysNo · $1,397entry 76.0¢
- 0xc90b…a4f0$772,554 profit in 30 daysNo · $616entry 77.6¢
- 0x1e55…3b9e$682,849 profit in 30 daysNo · $405entry 77.0¢
- 0x7a2f…d208$20,973 profit in 30 daysNo · $365entry 69.0¢
- 0xe3d4…6f17$221,891 profit in 30 daysNo · $287entry 68.0¢
- 0x5b8c…2c5a$375,314 profit in 30 daysNo · $62entry 79.0¢
Research and paper simulation only. You place any trade yourself.